Markov Analysis

1. Describe the internal labor market of the company in terms of job stability (staying in same job), promotion paths and rates, transfer paths and rates, demotion paths and rates, and turnover (exit) rates. Transition Probabilities for 2010-2011 Sales, Full-time 1. 50% stayed the same 2. 10% transferred to part-time status 3. 5% were promoted to Asst. Sales Mgr. 4. 0% were promoted to Regional Sales Mgr. 5. 35% left the organization Sales, Part-time 1. 5% transferred to full-time status . 60% stayed the same 3. 10% were promoted to Asst. Sales Mgr. 4. 0% were promoted to Regional Sales Mgr. 5. 25% left the organization Asst. Sales Mgr. 1. 5% were demoted to full-time sales 2. 0% were demoted to part-time sales 3. 80% stayed the same 4. 10% were promoted to Regional Sales Mgr. 5. 5% left the organization Region Sales Mgr. 1. 0% transferred to another job 2. 70% Stayed the same 3. 30% left the organization 2. Forecast the numbers available in each job category in 2013.
Job 2012 Category Employees SF SP ASM RSM TOTAL EXIT Sales Full-time (SF) 500 250 50 25 0 325 175 Sales Part-time (SP) 150 7. 5 90 15 0 112. 5 37. 5 Asst. Sales Mgr. (ASM) 50 2. 5 0 40 0 47. 2. 5 Region Sales Mgr. (RSM) 30 0 0 0 21 21 9 Work Sales Full-Time (SFT) Sales Part-Time(SPT) Asst. Sales Mgr(ASM) Reg Sales Mgr a. ) . 50 x 500 = 250 b. ) . 05 x 150 = 7. 5 c. ) . 05 x 50 = 2. 5 d. ) . 70 x 30 = 21 . 10 x 500 = 50 . 60 x 150 = 90 . 80 x 50 = 40 . 30 x 30 = 9 . 05 x 500 = 25 . 0 x 150 = 15 . 10 x 50 = 5 . 35 x 500 = 175 . 25 x 150 = 37. 5 . 05 x 50 = 2. 5 3. Indicate potential limitations to your forecasts. A. ) As a rule, it is desirable to have 20 or more employees in each job category/level. Some of the cells contain less than 20 cases. So the estimates based on these figure can yield unstable estimates of future availabilities. B. ) There is a possibility of results not being accurate due to multiple moves by employees.
The analysis cannot detect multiple moves by employees between T and T+1; it only classifies employees and counts their movement according to their beginning (T) and ending (T+1) job category/level, ignoring any intermittent moves. C. ) The forecast assumes that all employees in a job category/level have an equal probability of movement. This is unrealistic because organizations take many factors into account. Because of these factors, the probabilities of movement may vary among specific employees.