Discussion comment

  
I need at least a 150-word comment for my class mate’s discussion
Overconfidence Bias
                    Whitney posted 
Class and Professor,
The video that I watched was on overconfidence bias. The video explained it very well, there were examples in the workplace and not in the workplace to help people understand how overconfidence can create problems. One of the examples that it gave was some that have a series of successes would have their minds underplay the role that luck had in their success. A 2012 study indicated that overconfident executive with unrealistic beliefs about their future performance is more likely to commit financial reporting fraud than other executives. Which means that the overconfident executives are more likely to get themselves into some major trouble. Where some executives feel that the only way that they can get themselves to keep all of their promises. This doesn’t only happen in the workplace; it can happen in school or everyday life. Its like in school some students may cheat on tests to pass that they did not study for so that they can meet the requirements. Being overconfident can cause us to make decisions that we don’t fully think about. If we don’t get the data needed to make a decision and just go with overconfidence, we can make a bad decision that could lose us money. Each decision needs to be strategic and studied so that we make the right one for our company to make the company successful. This video showed that we need to be confident, but not overconfident and that we should make our decisions carefully. One of the things said in the video was to hold yourself up to a standard and not slack off. When we slack off and become overconfident is when we can make some of our worse decisions. I felt the video was credible. I feel that it is also relevant to this course because it talks about the decisions we make in business companies and being overconfident in the workplace. Problem-solving in the workplace is very common we need to know how to deal with each problem in the best way possible. If we are overconfident we can make the wrong decisions which can cause more problems in the workplace where we have to find the best decision to fix the problems. “Closely linked to confirming evidence, the overconfidence trap is when a decision maker overestimates the accuracy of their forecasts because of an exaggerated belief in their ability to understand situations and to predict the future.” (Kourdi, 2011) We don’t know what will happen in the future and the world is always changing so we have to be careful with decisions to help the company stay successful.
References
Kourdi, J. (2011). Chapter 10: Avoiding the pitfalls and developing an action plan. Effective Decision Making: 10 Steps to Better Decision Making and Problem Solving.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4wv4RYFuE4