Module 2: Linear Regression and Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Forecasting

 
Module 2: Linear Regression and Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Forecasting
Scenario: You are a consultant for the Diligent  Consulting Group (DCG). You have completed the first assignment,  developing and testing a forecasting method that uses Linear Regression  (LR) techniques (Module 2 Case). However, the consulting manager at DCG  wants to try a different forecasting method as well. Now you decide to  try Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) to forecast sales.
Using this Excel template: Data chart for BUS520 SLP 2, do the following:
Calculate the MAPE for Year 2 Linear Regression forecast (use the first spreadsheet tab labeled “Year 2 Forecast – MAPE”).
Calculate forecasted sales for Year 2 using SES (use the second spreadsheet tab labeled “SES – MAPE”). Use 0.15 and 0.90 alphas.
Compare the MAPE calculated for the LR forecast (#1 above) with the MAPEs calculated using SES.
Then write a report to your boss in which you discuss the results  obtained above. Using calculated MAPE values, make a recommendation  concerning which method appears to be more accurate for the Year 2 data:  SES or Linear Regression.
SLP Assignment Expectations
Analysis
Conduct accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel. You may also check the following link for your reference: https://support.office.com/en-US/article/data-analysis-7e71735c-c471-47e1-84ef-a8c23dc3098b
Written Report
·        Length requirements: 2  pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages). NOTE: You must submit 2  pages of written discussion and analysis. This means that you should avoid use of tables and charts as “space fillers.”
·        Provide a brief introduction to/background of the problem.
·        Complete a written analysis that supports your Excel  analysis, discussing the assumptions, rationale, and logic used to  complete your SES forecast.
·        Give complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s)  relating to whether LR or SES is more accurate in predicting sales.
·        Write clearly, simply, and logically. Use double-spaced, black Verdana or Times Roman font in 12 pt. type size.
·        Have an introduction at the beginning to introduce the topics and use keywords as headings to organize the report.
·        Avoid redundancy and general statements such as “All organizations exist to make a profit.” Make every sentence count.
·        Paraphrase the facts using your own words and ideas,  employing quotes sparingly. Quotes, if absolutely necessary, should  rarely exceed five words.
·        Upload both your written report and Excel file to the SLP 2 Dropbox .