Operations Forecasting

 
Resources: Microsoft® Excel® 
USE THE DATA PROVIDED BELOW.
Develop TWO quantitative forecasts(TIME SERIES) using Microsoft®
Excel®.
• SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE: See page 472, Exhibit 18.4 (Ch 18).
Develop only a 3 week moving average for the data shown in Exhibit
18.4.(caution, I chage the data below). Your text already shows the
answers, i.e. the value of 1067 shown for week 4 is the moving average
for weeks 1-3, therefore the estimataed forecast for week 4, given
actuals of 800,1400, and 1000 is 1067. SO TO MAKE THIS MORE
FUN, USE THIS DATA:
WEEK DEMAND 3 WEEK FORECAST
1 900(see, I just added 100 to each value from the exhibit
18.4 chart.
2 1500
3 1100
4 1600 ___________
5 1600 ____________
6 1400 ____________
7 1900 _______________
8 1800 ____________
WHAT IS THE THE 3 WEEK SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE FOR
WEEKS 4-8? Complete each week, like exhibit 18.4 through week 8.
• WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE: See example p 448. Keeping the
weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1, what is the week 5 weighted moving
aveagbe for the data above in this syllabus (900, 1500, 1100, and
1600)? The week 5 weighted moving average ? ___________. How
does this compare to the simple moving average you calculated abaove
for week 5? Which time series modle do you like best for your
operation?
Develop : While you could include a word.doc if you want, the only
deliverable is the Excel file showing both the simple and weighted
moving average. Start be putting the data into an excel file, then let
excel do the work for you to fill in the rest of the the chart